Планирование социально-экономического развития регионов России: проблемы полимасштабного сценирования

Abstract

Introduction. Regional development in the last year and a half has faced new challenges related to the limitations of foreign economic relations, which poses the task of revising forecasts of socio-economic dynamics in the subjects of the Russian Federation. Such a task can be solved only by applying a deductive approach: combining development scenarios at different taxonomic levels. Theoretical analysis. Since the subject ofthe Russian Federation is an intermediate(betweenmacro- andmicro-level) link,the development oftheregionalsystem is determined by exogenous and endogenous processes. Of great importance are the properties of its stability and the effectiveness of adaptation to changing conditions. These properties are largely related to the complexity and diversity of the region’s industry, as well as its reproductive processes. This determines the importance of multi-scale scenario planning, as well as taking into account the spatial features of regional development. Conclusions. In general, in the scenarios of the economic development of the country as a kind of generalized sum of the development of the Russian regions, the differentiation of the latter by some signs is either not expressed at all, or is poorly expressed. The effectiveness of socioeconomic development in the regional context will largely be determined by the use of a multi-scale approach when working out alternative scenarios taking into account the spatial component.