Scheduling optimization and risk analysis for energy-intensive industries under uncertain electricity market to facilitate financial planning

Abstract

The planning of energy-intensive processes is intrinsically uncertain due to their dependence on the volatile energy market, with scheduling having a vast impact on the final production cost of these plants. Traditional stochastic methods are mathematically very complex, which translates into a significant computational effort that might prevent a timely response to varying electricity prices. To encounter this uncertainty, we develop a reliable hybrid simulation-optimization approach for optimizing the production plant scheduling, combining scenario analysis with risk analysis. The proposed methodology is demonstrated with real data from a cryogenic air separation plant in Tarragona (Spain). This approach also informs decision-makers about risk or expected shortfall associated with the implied scenario. The generic methodology used here can be easily adapted to schedule facilities in other energy-intensive sectors such as cement, metallurgy or pulp and paper.