Schedule risk analysis of infrastructure projects: A hybrid dynamic approach

Abstract

Abstract Schedule risk is a major concern in infrastructure project management. Existing studies have proposed several models for schedule risk analysis, but few efforts have been made on the dynamics and uncertainty of risks and the generality and practicability of the model. To fill the research gaps, this study develops a hybrid dynamic approach for investigating the effect of risks on infrastructure project schedule performance. This approach combines system dynamics (SD) and discrete event simulation (DES) which have mainly been used to analyze the macroscopic and microcosmic construction issues in isolation, respectively. The model is then verified by data which is collected from a bridge construction project. As an application example, the effect of four selected risks on the schedule was explored. The results show that the proposed SD-DES model could be ease of modifying the model to reflect real situation, performing various sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, and showing simulation results more effectively.