Schedule Estimating Relationships for the Engineering and Manufacturing Development of Bomber, Transport, Tanker, and Surveillance Aircraft Systems

Abstract

Abstract : This study developed parametric schedule estimating relationships (SERs) for the engineering and manufacturing development (EMD) phase for nontactical aircraft systems. The potential value of this nontraditional approach to estimating schedule duration has been established by previous applications to tactical aircraft, air-launched munitions, and office buildings. Prior research suggested acquisition strategy parameters to be significant schedule drivers. For this study, data on EMD milestone dates and potential schedule drivers were collected on 56 bomber, transport, tanker, and surveillance aircraft systems. Several SERs were developed for these systems using linear regression analysis. The EMD phase was divided into subphases based on significant milestone such as first prototype flight, first production- article flight, first production-article delivery, and first delivery to the operating command. The final SERs include explanatory variables that capture the acquisition strategy and physical characteristics of the systems. The SERs can be applied by program managers to estimate the EMD schedule of nontactical aircraft systems before entry into EMD. Scheduling, Parametric analysis, Acquisition, Aircraft, Estimates, Regression analysis.