Scenario’s voor gebiedsgerichte aanpak van de inrichting van het landelijk gebied en het effect daarvan op transmissierisico’s van dierziekten

Abstract

In order to be able to take into account the risks for the introduction and spread of animal diseases in the area-oriented approach to the design of the rural area, a number of scenarios were calculated in this Knowledge Desk project commissioned by the Ministry of LNV. In this study, the effect of different scenarios of changes in farm size or location on animal disease spread risks was evaluated by modelling between-farm transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry and classical swine fever (CSF) in pigs. For both HPAI and CSF, the relative reduction of transmission risks is greatest in the scenario 'risk-based reduction of the number of farms', followed by 'random reduction of the number of farms', and 'reduce farm sizes while the number of farms remains the same'. So risk-based reduction of the number of farms is more effective than random removal of farms, and random removal of farms is more effective than reducing the number of animals per farm. There is, however, due to differences between parameter values of HPAI and CSF, a quantitative difference between CSF and HPAI: the difference in effectiveness between the least effective scenario (reducing farm sizes while the number of farms remains the same) and the most effective scenario (risk-based reduction of the number of farms) is for CSF in pigs (much) less than for HPAI in poultry. The difference in effectiveness between the scenario 'reducing farm sizes while the number of farms remains the same' and the scenario 'random reduction of the number of farms' is much smaller for CSF in pigs than for HPAI in poultry.