Scenarios of U.S. Carbon Reductions: Potential Impacts of Energy-Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies by 2010 and Beyond

Abstract

This report presents the results of a study conducted by five US Department of Energy national laboratories that quantifies the potential for energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies to reduce carbon emissions in the US. The stimulus for this study derives from a growing recognition that any national effort to reduce the growth of greenhouse gas emissions must consider ways of increasing the productivity of energy use. To add greater definition to this view, they quantify the reductions in carbon emissions that can be attained through the improved performance and increased penetration of efficient and low-carbon technologies by the year 2010. They also take a longer-term perspective by characterizing the potential for future research and development to produce further carbon reductions over the next quarter century. As such, this report makes a strong case for the value of energy technology research, development, demonstration, and diffusion as a public response to global climate change. Three overarching conclusions emerge from their analysis of alternative carbon reduction scenarios. First, a vigorous national commitment to develop and deploy cost-effective energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies could reverse the trend toward increasing carbon emissions. Along with utility sector investments, such a commitment could halt the growth in US energy consumption and carbon emissions so that levels in 2010 are close to those in 1997 (for energy) and in 1990 (for carbon). It must be noted that such a vigorous national commitment would have to go far beyond current efforts. Second, if feasible ways are found to implement the carbon reductions, the cases analyzed in the study are judged to yield energy savings that are roughly equal to or greater than costs. Third, a next generation of energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies promises to enable the continuation of an aggressive pace of carbon reductions over the next quarter century.