Abstract
Due to a complicated epidemiological situation, current economic situation in Russia and the world gives a push to new researches in the field of ensure sustainable development in all branches of industry. Methods and tools available today cannot fully provide this, so modern economics needs to develop fundamentally new approaches to the study of industries. Within the framework of this research it is proposed to use simulation modeling to predict scenarios of sustainable development of certain industries, in particular metallurgy, mining of metal ores and production of finished metal products. The research is based on systemic-synergistic approach based on the theory of industrial organization, economic growth and development, system dynamics and mathematical economics. The simulation model of metallurgy and related industries development, which is based on a system dynamic flow – streaming stratification, was designed and developed as a result of this research. Ideas of three-sector model, adapted to the sectoral aspects of the functioning of the economic system, are used in the simulation model. The development allows to simulate various scenarios of the development of the industries under study in order to determine the trajectory of their sustainable development. As a demonstration, three scenarios of the development of industries are presented, taking into account changes in the most important component of the economic system - labor force.
Highlights
Sustainable development of heavy industry remains the most important priority of the national economy, which is reflected in the industrial policy of the Russian Federation, individual national projects and programs [1]
The aim of this study is to develop a concept of a simulation model of the sustainable development of the metallurgical industry
As a result of this study, the following results were obtained: 1. As a result of the analysis of research in the field of simulation modeling, it was revealed that to build a model for the sustainable development of metallurgy, it is necessary to use the notation of system dynamics
Summary
Sustainable development of heavy industry remains the most important priority of the national economy, which is reflected in the industrial policy of the Russian Federation, individual national projects and programs [1]. The conclusions proposed in these works persuade researchers to use fundamentally new tools and methods for studying the sustainable development of the national economic system as a whole, and its individual sectors. Such models practically do not take into account, firstly, the nonlinear behavior of economic systems and, secondly, the presence of cause-and-effect relationships between individual indicators of these systems. The authors propose to use a fundamentally different approach the construction of simulation models to study the sustainable development of the metallurgical industry
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