Scenarios of Global Warming and its Proposed Worldwide Action Plan

Abstract

Global warming in today's scenario is threat to the survival of mankind. In 1956, Marion King Hubert, an US based Chief consultant and oil geologist predicted that if oil is consumed with high rate, US oil production may peak in 1970 and thereafter it will decline. He also described that other countries may attain peak oil day within 20-30 years and many more may suffer with oil crises within 40 years, when oil wells are going to dry. He illustrated the projection with a bell shaped Hubert Curve based on the availability and its consumptions of the fossil fuel. Large fields are discovered first, small ones later. After exploration and initial growth in output, production plateaus and eventually declines to zero. It is known facts that crude oil, coal and gas are the main resources for world energy supply. The size of fossil fuel reserves and the dilemma that when non-renewable energy will be diminished, is a fundamental and doubtful question that needs to be answered. A new formula for calculating, when fossil fuel reserves are likely to be depleted, is presented along with an econometrics model to demonstrate the relationship between fossil fuel reserves and some main variables. The new formula is modified from the Klass model and thus assumes a continuous compound rate and computes fossil fuel reserve depletion times for oil, coal and gas of approximately 35, 107 and 37 years, respectively. This means that coal reserves are available up to 2112, and will be the only fossil fuel remaining after 2042. In India, vehicular pollution is estimated to have increased eight times over the last two decades. This source alone is estimated to contribute about 70 per cent to the total air pollution. With 243.3 million tons of carbon released from the consumption and combustion of fossil fuels in 1999, India is ranked fifth in the world behind the U.S., China, Russia and Japan. India's contribution to world carbon emissions is expected to increase in the coming years due to the rapid pace of urbanization, shift from non-commercial to commercial fuels, increased vehicular usage and continued use of older and more inefficient coal-fired and fuel power-plants. Thus, peak oil year may be the turning point for mankind which in turn led to the end of 100 year of easy growth, if self-sufficiently and sustainability of energy is not maintained on priority. It may end up a better. This paper describes the worldwide efforts being made to explore non-conventional energy resources such as: solar energy, wind energy, bio-mass and bio-gas, hydrogen, bio-diesel which may help for the sustainable fossil fuel reserves and reduce the tail pipe emission and other pollutants like: CO2, NOX etc.. Also an emphasis is also suggested for the storage of energy such as; battery, flywheel, capacitor devices and storage of air by compressing the air from natural energy sources like: solar, wind and or muscular power. These resources are available in plenty and free of cost and could maintain energy sustainability in 21st century. The tidal energy available in the sea and energy created on account extreme climatic conditions like: storms, tsunami, hurricanes etc. can also be captured and utilized in due course of time if proper diversion and storages are created. This may also definitely leads to environmentally and ecologically better future.