Abstract
India is expected to witness rapid growth in electricity use over the next two decades. Here, we introduce a custom regression model to project electricity consumption in India over the coming decades, which includes a bottom-up estimate of electricity consumption for two major growth drivers, air conditioning, and vehicle electrification. The model projections are available at a customizable level of spatial aggregation at an hourly temporal resolution, which makes them useful as inputs to long-term electricity infrastructure planning studies. The approach is used to develop electricity consumption data sets spanning various technology adoption and growth scenarios up to the year 2050 in five-year increments. The aim of the data is to provide a range of scenarios for India’s demand growth given new technology adoption. With long-term hourly demand projections serving as an essential input for electricity infrastructure modeling, this data publication enables further work on energy efficiency, generation, and transmission expansion planning for a fast-growing and increasingly important region from a global climate mitigation perspective.
Highlights
Background & SummaryMany assessments of future electricity demand in India project large increases in electricity consumption from adoption of air conditioning technologies in the buildings sector over the two decades[1,2,3]
This large growth is likely to make India among the top nations in terms of electricity consumption, implying that technology choices related to energy consumption and production in India are likely to play a significant impact on global climate change mitigation efforts
This paper presents an bottom-up approach to estimate electricity consumption in India for various scenarios of technology and policy adoption with a specific focus on providing aggregated consumption estimates as well as spatio-temporally resolved consumption profiles that would be relevant for regional and national electricity system planning studies
Summary
Background & SummaryMany assessments of future electricity demand in India project large increases in electricity consumption from adoption of air conditioning technologies in the buildings sector over the two decades[1,2,3]. Data State-wise Historical GDP Vehicle Sales and Registration Air Conditioning Stock and Capacity Load Profile State-level sector-wise energy consumption This manuscript motivates the need for more bottom-up projections and not just regression models because historical consumption cannot infer consumption trends from new demand sources such as cooling and EVs. since the Future of Cooling study by the International Energy Agency relies on GDP forecasts developed by the International Monetary Fund[3], we elected to use a similar metric.
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