Scenarios of Future Development of the Modern Digital Economy: Technical Progress vs. Social Distance

Abstract

AbstractPurpose: The purpose of this chapter is to determine the scenarios of development of the modern digital economy depending on the combination of social and technical progress and to model their implementation in developed and developing countries.Design/methodology/approach: Regression analysis is used for determining the dependence of social progress as the key goal of development of economic systems on technical progress, which is a tool of achieving this goal. The method of forecasting by generation of random numbers and the method of analytical groupings for determining intervals and probability of hitting the intervals of forecast values are used, and histograms of normal distribution of forecast data are built.Findings: Scenarios of future development of the modern digital economy depending on the combination of social and technical progress are modeled. Based on statistics of the digital economy and its social and economic advantages in developed and developing countries with the highest digital competitiveness in 2020, it is determines that these scenarios are different in developed and developing countries.Originality/value: It is proved that scenario of social distance due to technical progress is most probable in developed countries, which shows a vivid contradiction of the interests of social and technical progress in these countries. In developing countries, social and technical progress is rather harmonious. However, the most probable scenario until 2024 envisages absence of social support and destructive influence of digitalization on society, though scenario of socially-oriented digitalization is also rather probable.KeywordsScenariosFuture developmentDigital economyTechnical progressSocial distanceSocial progressDeveloped countriesDeveloping countriesJEL CodeB52D02E02E14F55M15O14O31O32O33O38O43