Scenarios of Commodity Circulation of Agricultural Products by Cooperatives of the Central Federal District to the Moscow Region

Abstract

This paper is devoted to the problem of the distribution of agricultural products by cooperatives of the subjects of the Central Federal District (CFD) to the Moscow region for meeting the needs of the population and ensuring food security. The study aims to substantiate the possibility and reserves of the regions for sending surplus products to the Moscow region, which does not yet produce the volumes necessary for the population. The purpose of the study is to increase the level of 3 of the needs of residents of Moscow and the Moscow region for agricultural products produced (purchased) by cooperative organizations in the nearest regions of the Central Federal district. The study gives the author’s concept of the process of digitalization, which is presented in the form of processes of automation of human functions in the technological, managerial, and mental spheres of activity, contributing to the creation of artificial intelligence. The object of the study is agricultural consumer cooperatives operating in the Smolensk, Lipetsk, and Tambov regions of the Central Federal district, as well as the market environment in which they are created and developed. The subject of the study is organizational and economic models of real and potential vertically integrated cooperative structures in the agricultural sector of the economy, the trends of their transformation. The results of the study were obtained in the framework of the research work “Draft program of promotion of agricultural products of regional producers of the Central Federal district to the markets of Moscow and the Moscow region”. The program of promotion of agricultural products on the example of Smolensk, Lipetsk and Tambov regions is understood as a set of prospective volumes of production (purchase) and sale of agricultural products in the planning period in kind and value terms, corresponding to the nomenclature, assortment and quality requirements of consumers of the market network. The calculations of the consumption of agricultural products in the studied potato-producing regions are made. It is determined that about 30% of the products can be sent to Moscow and the Moscow region to provide for the population. Based on the use of three possible scenarios (optimistic, pessimistic, and most probable), possible situations for the medium-term supply of potatoes from the three regions of the Central Federal district to the Moscow region are established.