Scenarios for transitioning the electricity sector of the Republic of Serbia to sustainable climate neutrality by 2050

Abstract

By ratifying the Paris Agreement, the Republic of Serbia has committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 13.2% by 2030 compared to the 2010 levels. About 70% of electricity is generated in thermal power plants that use low-quality domestic lignite as fuel. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation amounted to 51.5 Mt CO2eq in 2014. The Republic of Serbia has a significant renewable energy source (RES) potential for electricity generation. This research aims to define sustainable scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050 in the transition process of the electricity generation sector in the Republic of Serbia. These scenarios provide an opportunity to gradually reduce CO2 emissions by 2050, with the goal of zero-emission electricity generation in 2050. The scenarios were created using the hourly electricity balance of the Serbian power system in the EnergyPLAN software, with 2010 as the base year for the calculations. The proposed scenarios promote the sustainable use of RES for electricity generation in the Republic of Serbia. The results show a reduction in CO2 emissions of 35% and 59% in 2030 for the scenarios and 66% and 100% in 2050 compared to the reference year 2010.