Scenarios for the future of the European process industry - the case of the chemical industry

Abstract

Will the European manufacturing industry survive in the long term? This question has been discussed for decades. The issue is particularly controversial for the chemical industry with its energy-intensive production and unpleasant image in European cities. We studied future challenges for the European chemical industry until the year 2030. Based on a Delphi survey in real-time format, we compiled the perspectives of 38 experts from industry, academia and government concerning 15 projections. The results were analysed according to the likelihood of occurrence, the impact and the desirability of the projections. Based on the 249 qualitative statements made by the participating experts, we derived four future scenarios. The scenarios address developments in sustainability and the dependency of the industry on oil in the future. Our research contributes to understanding the challenges that the chemical industry in Europe will face in the future, as well as which competitive advantages will contribute to its success.