Scenarios for the Demographic Development of Rural Areas in Bulgaria – 2027

Abstract

The ongoing demographic crisis in Bulgaria (permanent depopulation, constant reduction and deterioration of the age structure of the rural population, etc.) increasingly encourages policies to strengthen the social, ecological, economic, and managerial sustainability of rural areas. The aim of this study is to forecast the socio-demographic trends of rural areas in Bulgaria for 2027. Based on a developed linear scenario model, the sensitivity of selected indicators is identified under certain assumptions of changes in the independent variables. The suggested optimistic scenarios for the selected indicators have the highest rating, which means that certain favorable changes in demographic and socio-economic aspects should be expected in rural areas. One of the lowest ratings is for the pessimistic scenario of the index by place of residence, which indicates an expectation for a moderate preservation of the existing trend of population reduction. The forecast is that at the end of 2027, child mortality will decrease, due to the continuation of the tendency to decrease the average age of the mother at the birth of a child, an increase in the birth rate and fertility among women.