Scenarios for selected maritime economic functions

Abstract

This paper discusses the use of scenarios in the ‘Blue Growth’ project, which was aimed at elaborating the maritime dimension of the Europe 2020 strategy, with a 15-year time horizon (2025/2030). Scenarios were understood and developed in two ways: as descriptions of plausible, desirable and realistic future developments (the ‘micro-future scenarios’) and as a means to foster uncertainty awareness (the ‘general scenarios’). The general scenarios were developed as a scenario matrix, following Van der Heijden (1996). The micro-futures were developed following the approach proposed by Miller (Futures 39:341–362, 2007). The direct impact of the general scenarios on policy development cannot yet be evaluated. The micro-futures, being relatively concrete, were very useful to trigger discussions. In addition, the evaluation of the micro-futures in the light of the general scenarios led to some valuable insights. Within the Blue Growth project, the use of this hybrid approach has led to an active involvement of stakeholders, generating energy in the process of defining a desirable future, while taking account of uncertainties in the developments in global development.