Scenarios for handling the impact of COVID-19 based on food supply network through regional food hubs under uncertainty

Tomy Perdana,Diah Chaerani,Audi Luqmanul Hakim Achmad,Fernianda Rahayu Hermiatin

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e05128

Abstract

This paper discusses an optimization model for handling the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic based on food supply network through regional food hubs (RFHs) under uncertainty. To this end, uncertainty is assumed in the demand and production data. During the Pandemic COVID-19 period, uncertainty has increased and the food supply chain system has changed. Thus, a new configuration of the food supply network requires analysis. In this paper, the concept of RFH is introduced to connect producers in rural areas and customers in urban areas. This paper determines the location and capacity of RFHs, the food supply network, the sum of maximum food supplies, and minimum logistics cost. This is done via a Multi-Objective Many-to-Many Location-Routing Problem model. Furthermore, since the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic is uncertain, robust optimization is employed to handle uncertainties. During the current pandemic, red zones are defined to indicate the severity of the pandemic in a region. In this paper, the numerical experiment is considered for three scenarios: when a region is in large-scale social distancing, partial social distancing, or normal conditions. This social distancing situation is based on the defined red zones. The optimal food supply network is obtained for the three scenarios and the best scenario among the three is identified.

Highlights

The Indonesian government's initial attempt to minimize the COVID19 pandemic's seriousness by taking early preventative measures has resulted in it forfeiting the opportunity to keep the COVID-19 pandemic under control in the short phase of the outbreak
This paper aims to determine the optimal location of regional food hubs (RFHs) and food supply networks connecting producers in rural areas and customers in urban areas
This paper addresses the problem of determining the optimal location of RFH by considering aspects of sustainability and food security for all conditions, including during pandemics

Summary

Introduction

The Indonesian government's initial attempt to minimize the COVID19 pandemic's seriousness by taking early preventative measures has resulted in it forfeiting the opportunity to keep the COVID-19 pandemic under control in the short phase of the outbreak. According to Statistics Indonesia (2020), approximately 56.70% of Indonesia's population is in urban areas, and most COVID-19 cases in the country have been concentrated in these areas. The pandemic is having several effects on environmental, social, and economic aspects, as well as on food security. One result of the COVID-19 pandemic is the bullwhip effect of food supply, which has caused uncertainty in demand and supply and increased the complexity of the food supply chain (Mitchell et al, 2020; Chen et al, 2020). The consumption of food in urban areas will be more volatile, which the distribution system will need to accommodate. The emerging stockpile of staple food must gain significant attention as a government concern, for areas designated as red zones

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