Scenarios for Global Aquaculture and Its Role in Human Nutrition

Jessica A Gephart,Christopher D Golden,Frank Asche,Ben Belton,Cecile Brugere,Halley E Froehlich,Jillian P Fry,Benjamin S Halpern,Christina C Hicks,Robert C Jones,Dane H Klinger,David C Little,Douglas J Mccauley,Shakuntala H Thilsted,Max Troell,Edward H Allison

doi:10.1080/23308249.2020.1782342

Abstract

Global demand for freshwater and marine foods (i.e., seafood) is rising and an increasing proportion is farmed. Aquaculture encompasses a range of species and cultivation methods, resulting in diverse social, economic, nutritional, and environmental outcomes. As a result, how aquaculture develops will influence human wellbeing and environmental health outcomes. Recognition of this has spurred a push for nutrition-sensitive aquaculture, which aims to benefit public health through the production of diverse, nutrient-rich seafood and enabling equitable access. This article explores plausible aquaculture futures and their role in nutrition security using a qualitative scenario approach. Two dimensions of economic development – the degree of globalization and the predominant economic development philosophy – bound four scenarios representing systems that are either localized or globalized, and orientated toward maximizing sectoral economic growth or to meeting environmental and equity dimensions of sustainability. The potential contribution of aquaculture in improving nutrition security is then evaluated within each scenario. While aquaculture could be “nutrition-sensitive” under any of the scenarios, its contribution to addressing health inequities is more likely in the economic and political context of a more globally harmonized trade environment and where economic policies are oriented toward social equity and environmental sustainability.

Highlights

Achieving global food and nutrition security goals within environmental boundaries will require transformation of global food production and distribution systems
Investors, and development organizations look toward aquaculture to meet growing seafood demand, the macro policies, especially the degree of globalization and the economic growth strategy, will shape the form of aquaculture that takes hold
While each scenario presented here holds the potential for contributing to nutrition-sensitive aquaculture, each requires some degree of public policy commitment

Summary

Introduction

Achieving global food and nutrition security goals within environmental boundaries will require transformation of global food production and distribution systems. This dual challenge will become ever more critical to solve with a global population headed to 10 billion by 2050, shifting socio-economic demographics, and with dietary trends toward more resource-intensive foods (Tilman and Clark 2014; Springmann et al 2018; Willett et al 2019). Fish and other aquatic foods from both freshwater and marine environments (hereafter referred to as “seafood”) are central to meeting food and nutrition security goals WorldFish, Jalan Batu Maung, Batu Maung, Bayan Lepas, Penang, Malaysia 11960.

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