Scenarios for Global and Dutch use of Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and Their Consequences for Global Warming

Abstract

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are important substitutes for chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and halons. HCFCs have a lower Ozone Depleting Potential (ODP) than CFCs and halons, and are therefore considered temporary substitutes, while HFCs have zero ODP. In addition to ODP many halocarbons also have a Global Warming Potential (GWP). We developed this paper three different scenarios, globally as well as for the Netherlands: (1) the ‘London’ scenarios, in which HCFCs and HFCs are used unrestrictedly to replace CFCs and halons. As a result the global warming effect by halocarbons may increase the future. HFCs are found to be the main contributors to future radiative forcing by halocarbons. In the Netherlands the increasing use of HFCs results in a doubling of the release of CO2-equivalents from all halocarbons by 2010 compared to 1990 (assuming a zero GWP for CFCs and halons, to include potential indirect negative radiative effects via stratospheric ozone destruction); (2) the ‘Copenhagen’ scenarios, which consider an additional phase-out of HCFCs, after which the use of HFCs increases. The higher GWPs of HFCs compared to other halocarbons result in an increase of global warming by halocarbons. Dutch CO2 equivalent halocarbon consumption could increase by a factor 2 to 4 after an HCFC phase-out, if no additional measures for HFCs are implemented; (3) the ‘Additional Policy’ scenario, which assumes the use of compounds, that have zero ODP and a relatively small GWP, which are available for most applications. Such additional measures will reduce CO2-eq. halocarbon consumption substantially. The share of halocarbons in total CO2 equivalent emissions in the Netherlands will increase from 3 to 7% to 11% in 2010 (assuming a zero GWP for CFCs and halons). Substitution by low or zero GWP alternatives leads to stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions by 2010 at the 1990 level, while without additional policy for HFCs Dutch greenhouse gas emissions may increase by 10% or more.