Scenarios for geothermal energy deployment in Europe

Francesco Dalla Longa,Jan-Diederik Van Wees,Jon Limberger,Larissa P Nogueira,Bob Van Der Zwaan

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2020.118060

Abstract

Abstract The use of geothermal energy in Europe is expected to grow rapidly over the next decades, since this energy resource is generally abundant, ubiquitous, versatile, low-carbon, and non-intermittent. We have expanded and adapted the integrated assessment model TIAM-ECN to more adequately reflect geothermal energy potentials and to better represent the various sectors in which geothermal energy could possibly be used. With the updated version of TIAM-ECN, we quantify how large the share of geothermal energy in Europe could grow until 2050, and analyze how this expansion could be stimulated by climate policy and technological progress. We investigate geothermal energy’s two main applications: power and heat production. For the former, we project an increase to around 100–210 TWh/yr in 2050, depending on assumptions regarding climate ambition and cost reductions for enhanced geothermal resource systems. For the latter, with applications in residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural sectors, we anticipate under the same assumptions a rise to about 880–1050 TWh/yr in 2050. We estimate that by the middle of the century geothermal energy plants could contribute approximately 4–7% to European electricity generation. We foresee a European geothermal energy investment market (supply plus demand side) possibly worth about 160–210 billion US$/yr by mid-century.

Highlights

Geothermal energy is increasingly seen as an option that could assist in reaching the goal of the Paris Agreement to limit the atmospheric temperature increase to 2 C or less [1]
We found that the global level of geothermal electricity and heat generation could reach some 800e1300 and 3300e3800 TWh/yr, respectively, by 2050, depending on the climate change mitigation ambition and the future costs of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS)
Limberger et al [5] determine the economic potential by calculating the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of geothermal resources for power generation in Europe on the basis of the technical potential that they deduce from detailed information on underground temperature gradients and formation properties

Summary

Introduction

Geothermal energy is increasingly seen as an option that could assist in reaching the goal of the Paris Agreement to limit the atmospheric temperature increase to 2 C or less [1]. We recently enhanced the global energy system model TIAMECN, member of the family of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) used for instance by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [3], to better represent several geothermal energy options. As explained in [4], we updated the techno-economic characterization of geothermal energy in TIAM-ECN for power generation and the supply of district heating and cooling in the residential and commercial sectors. We found that the global level of geothermal electricity and heat generation could reach some 800e1300 and 3300e3800 TWh/yr, respectively, by 2050, depending on the climate change mitigation ambition and the future costs of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS)

Methods

Results

Conclusion