Abstract
The political discussion to reduce the carbon footprint of Germany’s electricity sector, focusing on coal, is intensifying. In this paper, we develop scenarios for phasing out lignite and hard coal power plants in Germany prior to the end of their technical lifespan (“coal-exit”). Our analysis bases upon two coal-exit instruments, the retirement of coal generation capacities and the limiting of how much aged coal power plants with high carbon intensity can be used within a year. Results show that phasing out coal in Germany would have a considerable impact on Central European electricity markets, in terms of decarbonization efforts and electricity trade. An ambitious coal-exit could avert foreseeable shortcomings in Germany’s climate performance in the short-run and release additional carbon savings, thus compensating for potential shortfalls in other energy-intensive sectors by 2030. Limited emissions in the range of 27% would be shifted to neighboring countries. However, tremendous positive climate effects on European scale would result, because Germany’s annual emission savings in 2030 would be substantial. Totaling 85 million tons of CO2, the overall net reduction is equivalent to 17.5% of total European emissions in 2030 without retirements of coal-firing power plants prior to the end of their technical lifespan.
Highlights
Our findings show that a rapid coal phase-out in Germany leads to a significant modification of generation patterns and trade flows between Germany and its neighbors
The reference scenario REF represents a business-as-usual continuation of German energy and climate policy regulation dating to August 2018 and updates available power generation capacities in Germany
Besides the reference scenario (REF), we modeled four coal-exit pathways for Germany: First, one scenario using the capacities of the reference case with a limitation of the annual operation time of aged coal power plants (REF-flh)
Summary
Germany has not been stringent with respect to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the 2010s. Formerly the backbone of Germany’s economy since the second world war [2,3] is risking to become the Achilles heel of its energy transition in the 21st century. Recent research as well as the recommendations of the coal commission emphasize that the reduction of CO2 emissions in Germany need to be taken out of the ETS-market to safeguard the overall climate objectives [10]. We develop scenarios for phasing out lignite and hard coal power plants in Germany, calculate the energy and climate effects on both the German and the European electricity systems, with respect to trade flows, electricity mix and CO2 emissions. We are interested in long-term resource adequacy, i.e., the availability of sufficient generation capacity to meet demand, as well as the overall CO2 emissions of the electricity system. The model decides on cost-optimal investment and dispatch for conventional and renewable power plants, storage systems, demand-side management and high-voltage transmission lines
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