Scenarios for Adoption of Low-Carbon Household Cooking Fuels in Biomass-Dependent Informal Settlements of Urban Sub-Saharan Africa: A Critical Analysis of Kisumu City

Abstract

The use of unclean cooking fuels is widespread in urban informal settlements in Africa, while the adoption of clean fuels is largely done by stacking with traditional biomass fuels. Rapid urbanisation has aggravated the situation since it hampers effective planning for climate action and the provision of clean and affordable cooking fuels. It is, therefore, essential to deploy effective household carbon emissions (HCE) reduction strategies that are cognizant of the fuel use patterns and household dynamics of households in urban informal settlements. This study highlights the status of HCE in Kisumu City’s informal settlements and subsequently explores possible pathways for reducing emissions through the adoption of low-carbon cooking fuels. The paper features existing and plausible emissions scenarios in the informal settlements of Kisumu City. The study adopts a descriptive correlation research design targeting a sample 419 households drawn from seven informal settlements of Kisumu City. Binary logistic regression is used to establish the relationships that exist between household characteristics and the adoption of clean fuels. Multiple linear regression analysis reveals existing and probable emission pathways, informed by varying household characteristics and adjusting fuel-stacking scenarios. Household income has a positive correlation with adoption of clean fuel combinations (p<0.01), while household size does not have a significant relationship with adoption of clean fuels. The annual HCE attributable to cooking in Kisumu City’s informal settlements is 976 KgCO2. Fuel stacking nuances are vital considerations in choosing practical emission reduction pathways for these households. Emission reduction scenario that contemplates transitioning households that use charcoal in their fuel stacks to using LPG has the highest emission reduction potential of 72%. Although an emission scenario that includes LPG in the fuel mix of households that do not use it has an emission reduction potential of just 9%, it is the most realistic option since it accommodates the phenomenon of fuel stacking