Scenarios for a Scaling-up System for Organic Cassava Production in the Mekong River Basin: A Foresight Approach

Abstract

Organic cassava flour and products are in high demand. However, the expansion of organic cassava (OCS) production is rather slow. To increase OCS production, extension workers, cassava flour mills, farmers, and researchers have been collaborating to support the farmers, but the planted areas have remained limited. This research aimed at understanding the current issues in scaling up the organic cassava production. The findings were subsequently used to formulate scenarios and recommendations for the collaborative scale-up of organic cassava production in the Mekong River Basin (MRB). We carried out a six-step foresight process with leaders of organic cassava farmers, the staff of organic cassava flour mills and factories, extension workers, the staff of research agencies, and local policy makers in Thailand. The results revealed two key factors or drivers of changes, namely, the degree of collaboration among stakeholders using multiple-view scenarios or a single-view situation and the degree of learning and communication about OCS that future stakeholders are likely to experience. Four possible scenarios for a scaling-up system of OCS production in the MRB were developed. The foresight process allowed for recognizing multiple views and opinions about the OCS production scaling-up process, considered as a whole system. The system was found to consist of various interdependent components. The process highlighted the need to increase the capacity and opportunities for productive collaboration in research and development. We concluded that the MRB members should issue a policy formulating a joint task force to coordinate the existing institutions’ plans and resources towards an actionable OCS production scaling-up system for the MRB in 2030.