Scenarios as a tool

Abstract

In future-oriented studies, scenario building and analysis are becoming increasingly fashionable. This apparent increase in popularity is, however, somewhat misleading: many studies in trend analysis, comparisons of static equilibria, variant analysis and sensitivity analysis are presented nowadays as scenario studies . We prefer to use the term ‘scenario’ in the stricter sense: a scenario is a description of the current situation, of a possible or desirable future state as well as of the series of events that could lead from the current state of affairs to this future state