Scenarios as a tool supporting decisions in urban energy policy: The analysis using fuzzy logic, multi-criteria analysis and GIS tools

Abstract

At present, cities characterised by high building intensity, which requires a sufficiently large amount of energy for proper functioning. This necessity means that energy planning should focus on the one hand on saving and reducing energy consumption, but also on introducing renewable energy sources (RES) in a way that ensures sustainable urban development. Social and economic issues that condition equality in access to energy and allow its rational use are a severe problem in cities. The article proposes a way of identifying the criteria that have the most significant impact on energy policy effects and the use of renewable energy in cities. The tests results affecting the energy potential of cities were analysed using various energy scenarios. The fuzzy logic and the Geographic Information System (GIS) were used to assess them. To show the differences between the scenarios, the Energy Potential Index (EPI) was developed to determine the feasibility of implementing individual energy scenarios in six urban districts. The results of this study present the importance of different criteria that influence the decisions made and the applied energy policy scenarios in the city areas. The approach that is important regardless of the goals is the intensity of development. The most desirable area for the implementation of the energy policy, taking into account renewable energy sources, is the city quarter with high-intensity multi-family housing. The study conclusions provide guidelines for decision-makers shaping the energy policy in the city in the form of the EPI indicator - a comparative assessment of the location and development of renewable energy systems to increase energy potential, equality in access to energy and mitigation of the effects of climate change.