Scenarios and opportunities in the sugar and ethanol industry - challenges and opportunities towards a low carbon economy in Brazil

Abstract

With the future of transport embracing new models of mobility, hybridization and electrification, a reduction in fossil fuel consumption is expected. Biofuels, especially biomass-derived ethanol, play a significant role in this transition by boosting greenhouse gas emissions. Ethanol production is considered strategic by industrialized countries, coming from renewable biomass in the energy sector. Studies have explored the contribution of biofuels to the decarbonization of the vehicle transport sector at levels from 2030 to 2050. However, the future energy matrix remains uncertain, with the potential coexistence of multiple matrices and technologies. This research evaluates Brazil's position in these scenarios, considering the challenges and risks to achieve a sustainable energy matrix in the transport sector. The methodology involves the analysis of decarbonization scenarios, methods and concepts, examining scenarios projected for the future of the light vehicle sector in the main consumer countries. In addition, the research discusses Brazil's role in biofuels and transport scenarios, with a focus on Brazilian ethanol in the global bioeconomy by 2050. The challenge of decarbonization in the transport sector is global and highlights the importance of Brazil as the second largest producer of bioethanol, after the US.