Abstract
The aim of this chapter is to highlight the importance of a series of contextual factors for the future and provide a critical analysis of the matter. By “contextual factors” we refer to a wide umbrella of terms that shape system dynamics. Some of these factors evolve dynamically but others are the product of shocks in the system. We also call these “swinging factors” because, despite their importance, it is difficult to incorporate them into a scenario by quantifying their effects. To that end, we focus on factors which affect human action in a dynamic way, such as culture, collective social values, goals, and priorities. Additionally, we refer to the impact of high and irreducible uncertainty on individuals’ expectations. Lastly, rather than offering concluding remarks, we attempt to speculate on which scenario is more probable to prevail provided that catastrophic developments will not take place.
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