Abstract
The increase in electricity demand is caused by population density, gross domestic product growth and technological conditions. A long-term forecast study on the electricity demand could be a promising alternative to the investment planning of power systems and distribution. In this study, the main aim is to forecast and understand the long-term electricity demand of the Taoussa area for the sustainable development of the regions of northern Mali, by using the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) from the International Atomic Energy Agency. To fill such a knowledge gap, the long-term evolution of electricity demand is calculated separately for four consumption sectors: industry, transportation, service and household from 2020 to 2035. The demand for each end-use category of electricity is driven by one or several socioeconomic and technological parameters development of the country, which are given as part of the reference scenario (RS) and two alternative scenarios (Low and High). These scenarios were developed based on four groups of coherent hypotheses concerning demographic evolution, economic development, lifestyle change and technological change. The results showed that the annual growth rate of electricity demand in Taoussa area in all scenarios is expected to increase by only 8.13% (LS), 10.31% (RS) and 12.56% (HS). According to the seasonal variations of electricity demand, dry season electricity demand was higher than the demand in cool season during the study period. Such a conclusion demonstrates that the proposed long-term method and related results could provide powerful sustainable solutions to the electricity development challenges of Africa.
Highlights
Energy is essential for economic and social development and improved quality of life
During the study period 2020–2035, Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) analysis has shown that the gross domestic product (GDP), electric capacity and electricity demand will increase to USD 1.84 billion and 49.40 MW (332.57 GWh) for the Low scenario (LS), USD 2.41 billion and 66.46 MW (472.61 GWh) for the Reference scenario (RS), and USD 3.27 billion, 89.47 MW (635 GWh) for the High scenario (HS), respectively
The total electricity demand in the Taoussa area increased at an average rate of 8.13% in the LS, 10.31% in the reference scenario (RS) and 12.56% in the HS in all sectors
Summary
Energy is essential for economic and social development and improved quality of life. Much of the world’s energy is currently produced and used in ways that may not be sustainable in the long term. In order to assess progress towards a sustainable energy future (solar energy, wind energy, tidal energy and geothermal energy), energy indicators that can measure and monitor important changes are needed [1]. Energy demand is a derived demand that arises to satisfy some needs which are met through the use of appliances. Demand for end-use appliances depends on the relative prices of the appliances, relative cost of operation, availability of appliances, etc. A scenario can consider in the long term a series of future socio-economic and technical data (population growth rate, GDP growth rate, structural changes in the economy, improvement of household size, improvement of efficiency) to examine energy demand [3]
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