Scenario-Based Risk Management for Arctic Waters

Abstract

Abstract Arctic shipping is growing driven by a demand for natural resources, climate change, and technological development, among other factors. While this provides many benefits for society, it also entails risks for people, the environment, and property. The purpose of this article is to assist ship designers, operators, owners, and other stakeholders in managing those risks by defining a comprehensive approach to scenario-based risk management for Arctic waters. The approach covers both the management of short-term operational risks, as well as of risks related to a ship’s long-term extreme (design) ice loads and structural response. For operational risk management, a further developed version of the established Polar Operational Limitations Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS) method is defined. In contrast to the established method, the further developed version considers the consequences of potential accidental events. For managing risks related to a ship’s long-term extreme ice loads and structural response, guidelines are provided for the application of existing methods of assessing ice loads, including analytical, numerical, and semi-empirical methods. In addition, to support the design of ice class ship structures, a new approach based on closed-form expressions is defined that can be used in the conceptual design phase to determine preliminary scantlings of primary hull structural members (e.g., transverse web frames).