Scenario-based probabilistic estimation of direct loss for geohazards

Abstract

A general probabilistic framework for the estimation of scenario-based direct loss induced by a geohazard on the physical environment is proposed. The approach allows explicit consideration of the uncertainties that exist in the parameters and models which are representative of the intensity of the hazardous event, in the vulnerability of the physical environment to the geohazard and in post-event restoration costs. Such parameters, which are user-defined, are modelled as second-moment random variates. The propagation of model and parameter uncertainties is addressed through first-order second-moment approximation. The second-moment perspective allows efficient quantification of the uncertainty in estimates of vulnerability and direct loss. An overview of the main current challenges encountered in loss estimation methods for geohazards is provided, as well as a series of reference definitions for subsequent use in the methodology. A general description of the sources of uncertainty relevant to loss estimation is made available.