Scenario simulation of CO2 emissions from light-duty passenger vehicles under land use-transport planning: A case of Shenzhen International Low Carbon City

Abstract

• CO 2 emissions from light-duty passenger vehicles were simulated. • Light-duty passenger vehicle emissions were calculated based on travel demand. • Travel demand were simulated under different planning policy scenarios. • A case study was conducted in a project of international cooperation in China. • This study can offer a framework for evaluating land use-transport planning. Mitigating transport emissions acts a significant role in coping with global climate change and building sustainable cities. Since light-duty passenger vehicles (LDPVs) significantly contribute to transport CO 2 emissions, it is essential to evaluate their emissions for the policy-making of sustainable transport strategies. However, related studies concerning integrated land use-transport planning are limited. Therefore, this study simulated and evaluated CO 2 emissions from LDPVs at the community level using an integrated model, where the mixed-use development (MXD) model was adopted to estimate travel demand based on mixed land-use and transport accessibility. A vehicle emission calculation model was then employed to calculate CO 2 emissions with the estimated travel demand. With this model, the policy impacts on CO 2 emissions from LDPVs were simulated under different planning policy scenarios of land use-transport planning. As a leading development project of international cooperation on sustainable urbanization in China, Shenzhen International Low Carbon City was chosen as the study case. The results indicated the significance of the spatial equalized patterns of both mixed land-use and transport facilities. This new framework can be used to evaluate and promote low-carbon transport policy options for integrated spatial planning in the sustainable urbanization of developing countries.