Scenario simulation and comprehensive assessment of water footprint sustainability system in Heilongjiang Province, China: A model combining system dynamics with improved radar chart approach

Abstract

With population and economic growth, coupled with the problem of limited water resources, having led to widespread problems like water scarcity with aquatic pollution, exploring the impacts of water exploitation with usage on the environment, society, and economy is important for achieving regional sustainability goals. In order to analyze the impact of different water resources utilization policy scenarios on water footprint (WF) environmental sustainability, WF economic sustainability, WF social sustainability, and scenario optimization, this study employed a system dynamics approach to build a water footprint sustainability (WFS) system under six future scenarios: status quo (S1), open-source throttling (S2), pollution reduction (S3), agricultural development (S4), socioeconomic development (S5), and comprehensive (S6). Additionally, the dynamic effects of different future scenarios on the environmental sustainability, economic sustainability and social sustainability of regional WF were comparatively analyzed. The improved radar chart approach was applied to calculate the comprehensive assessment values under the different scenarios to select the optimal scenario. The results revealed that compared with scenario S1, scenarios S2 and S3 reduced the consumption and pollution of water resources, whereas scenarios S4, S5, and S6 promoted agricultural and socio-economic development, however, scenarios S4, S5, and S6 were not conducive to solving water shortage and pollution problems. Under the six scenarios, the environmental sustainability and social sustainability of WF would deteriorate, and the economic sustainability would continue to improve. Six scenarios have varying effects on the regional WFS. The comprehensive evaluation value for scenario S6 was the largest, and was much higher than that under scenario S1, indicating that the scenario S6 was the optimal scenario for improving the WFS and realizing the coordinated development of regional water resources and social economy. The findings of this study afforded a scientific foundation for achieving regional sustainable evolution and ensuring water security.