Scenario presentation and scenario generation in multi-criteria assessments: An exploratory study

Abstract

The lack of systematic option evaluation procedures involving scenarios, as well as the lack of a structured approach to consider deep uncertainty within the multi-criteria framework has offered scope for synergy in combining scenarios and multi-criteria decision analysis for assessing robustness. This paper uses a multi-method research design to provide insights on the role of scenario presentation in the evaluation process, and the extent to which choice is affected by decision rules for robustness when different scenario generation techniques are used in multi-criteria assessments. It concludes that the threshold level for risk proneness of utility functions and the degree of exposure/vulnerability are key factors to consider in choosing robustness measures and scenarios. Moreover, the use of a few scenarios, expressed simply as snapshots, may improve the efficiency with which preferences are elicited in the evaluation process.