Scenario planning: Pierre Wack’s hidden messages

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to distill and interpret Pierre Wack’s original views on scenario planning based on his personal papers and documents now accessible at the Pierre Wack Memorial Library at the University of Oxford. Design/methodology/approachThis article is based on a practical and historical review of several key documents at the Pierre Wack Memorial Library. The theoretical scope of the paper is to view current scenario planning practices in light of the foundational ideas of its originator. FindingsPierre’s personal materials contain several important practical implications for using scenarios. These are summarized after analyzing, synthesizing and reviewing his ideas. Research limitations/implicationsBecause the article is based on Wack’s personal views about scenario planning, it is necessarily limited. However, the goal is to revisit the original intent of scenario planning by reviewing the personal documents of one of its originators. Practical implicationsThe main goal of the paper is to distill practical advice from Wack’s documents. These are: (a) scenarios must be part of a larger strategy system and the elements are clarified, (b) scenarios should not be positioned or sold as the product/outcome of scenario planning, (c) the two-day workshop approach to scenario planning is not adequate, and (d) scenario planning should not primarily be practiced as group process. These issues are discussed and further explanations and solutions are examined. Social implicationsThis article is intended to provoke challenging questions about the nature of current scenario planning practices. We hope this work might change the common approach to scenario planning and offer guidance for avoiding disappointment in scenario planning because it is increasingly practiced inadequately. Originality/valueThis article features some of Wack’s original views about what is required for successful scenario planning. Further, this article uses his own words and is based on his personal documents, videos, presentation transcriptions and personal writings that have not before been in the public domain. This article will be of value to any executive, manager or consultant considering scenario planning, who wants to learn how it was originally intended to be practiced, how to get the most out of it, and what to avoid.