Scenario planning––lessons for practice from teaching and learning

Abstract

This paper begins with an introduction to the scenario concept in relation to futures thinking, Soft Operational Research and strategic development. A brief overview of the range of scenario development methods available is then presented. The paper goes on to introduce a particular scenario development methodology as advocated in the 1970s and 1980s, which for a number of years has formed a core component of a strategic development course taught at the University of Warwick. A large number of participants from a variety of backgrounds have experienced the course over a 15 year period and have developed scenarios for real organisations in workshops and live settings. This paper draws from such experiences, by identifying a number of common pitfalls concerning scenario development, and then recommending a revised methodology that addresses them. A selection of scenarios developed by participants are used both to illustrate the pitfalls observed and the improvements achieved.