Scenario Planning in Arctic Offshore Oil and Natural Gas Resources Development: A Case of Russia

Abstract

Arctic offshore is considered to have high potential for new commercial discoveries of oil and natural gas. One of the most engaged countries in the offshore Arctic oil and natural gas resources development is Russia. However, due to the changing geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape Arctic offshore oil and natural resources development experience some challenges. The study focuses on evaluating Arctic offshore oil and natural gas resources development perspectives in Russia for a long-term period. This includes an algorithm and guidelines to identify the long-term strategic directions for the development these resources, and a scenario planning forecast of their development until 2050. The maximum annual projected production volumes of oil and natural gas combined from the offshore fields in the Russian Arctic compose approximately 1% of total production in Russia in 2016. Based on the obtained results, it is necessary to adjust the strategy for developing the offshore oil and natural gas resources in the Russian Arctic in accordance to the potential production volumes and changing macroeconomic situation.