Abstract
Schoemaker's scenario planning is a suitable method for decision making in the context of emerging mobile services. The main challenges in using the method are related to avoiding subjective bias, identifying the most relevant trends, uncertainties and stakeholders and building consistent and coherent scenarios. The method is a systematic way to assess possible future outcomes, but does not provide a detailed understanding of them. Scenario planning serves as a structure for brainstorming sessions, and as a basis for a more detailed analysis using quantitative methods. We applied Schoemaker's scenario planning to the emerging mobile Peer-to-Peer Session Initiation Protocol (P2PSIP) communications services. According to our analysis, a potential P2PSIP stakeholder should seek settings where network and legal aspects are the most favourable: ad hoc and private environments without interconnectivity to the internet. A stakeholder considering global service provisioning should evaluate the semi-centralised public global scenario.
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