Scenario planning for climate strategies development by integrating group Delphi, AHP and dynamic fuzzy cognitive maps

Abstract

A hybrid approach to scenario planning by integrating group Delphi method, AHP (analytic hierarchy process) and dynamic fuzzy cognitive maps is proposed in the paper. The group Delphi method is employed to help group of experts to identify which worldwide forces have a major impact on climate related issues and how they interact together. In the second phase is assessed the value range that different variables of the proposed system can achieve and the impact that they have on each other. Assessment of the impact is done by use of the multiplicative AHP. During this phase the expert group also identifies which mathematical function (e.g. linear, sigmoid, concave, convex etc.) most properly describes relation between different forces. Based on this data a fuzzy cognitive map is developed as a base for a dynamic simulation of the world climate development. The simulation aims to serve as a source of guidelines about future organisational and technological changes, which can deliver a superior competitive position based on sustainable development strategy.