Scenario planning as an approach to structure the development of transport planning alternatives

Abstract

This paper investigates how scenario planning can be used as a method to structure the process of developing transport planning alternatives involving a broad range of stakeholders. Here, the term 'planning alternatives’ refers to a set of possible options or solutions considered to achieve improvements in the transport system, ranging from individual measures over combinations of measures to an entirely new transport system set up as enabled by new technologies. Planning includes multiple tasks, such as problem analysis, the development of planning alternatives as defined above, and appraisal. While formalised methods are established for analysis and appraisal, the development of planning alternatives usually takes place in a much less structured manner. Current guidelines hardly address how planning alternatives can be developed. With emerging technologies and new stakeholders and business models, the range of options to address transport problems has widened. Many of these options require coordination between public and private stakeholders. Developing planning alternatives in this context is substantially more complex. The current approach of compiling planning alternatives which is often simply based on brainstorming or considering ideas that are promoted by individuals is reaching its limits. Therefore, this paper investigates how scenario planning can be used to structure this process and integrate different stakeholders in the development of planning alternatives. Specifically, we developed planning alternatives for a public transport network in Aachen by supplementing conventional scheduled public transport with autonomous shuttles. This case study indicates that scenario planning is a versatile method that can be applied to develop planning alternatives in situations where a multitude of options seem plausible, as several perspectives must be considered.