Scenario Planning as a Tool to Manage Crises in Chaotic and Uncertain Environments

Abstract

This chapter will describe scenario planning and establish its value in facing crises and chaotic situations. It explains how research in the field has evolved and describes context conditions such as uncertainty, crisis, and chaos, which provide fertile grounds for scenario planning. A bibliometric analysis is presented to illustrate the increase in the study of scenario planning as a tool to deal with uncertainty. Examples from scenario planning around the world are introduced to show its global application and potential. A comparative analysis is presented based on different exercises in scenario planning developed during the COVID-19 pandemic to provide an insight into the key uncertainties linked to the health crisis and how a broad perspective can help provide clarity in chaotic environments.