Abstract
The paper presents a methodological approach to the formation of a scenario model of reproduction of the financial potential of the main institutional sectors of the economy, which include financial corporations (banks, insurance organizations, non-state pension funds and other investment companies), non-financial corporations (enterprises of various types of economic activity), government sector, households and foreign institutions. This model characterizes the multifaceted processes of transferring investment resources between sectors. It allows to establish the patterns of their reproduction during periods of recession and economic recovery, as well as to form predictive scenarios for the reproduction of the investment potential of the sectors and assess their impact on the dynamics of the economic stability of the territory.
Highlights
The scenario approach to forecasting the economic sustainability of territorial systems has significant advantages over other approaches
The formation of a whole system of predictive scenarios, in contrast to classical forecasting methods, allows to accurately assess the socio-economic, financial stability of a territory, and to predict its possible change in the future under the influence of various internal and external uncertain factors. This approach allows to prepare in advance for adverse scenarios and form a system of mechanisms to prevent their implementation.The purpose of this study is to form a methodological approach to the design of a scenario model that reflects the processes of reproduction of the financial potential of various sectors of the economy at the regional level and makes it possible to predict the threat of losing the stability of the economic development of the territory
Due to the limited statistical data, this model did not allow to study the processes of movement of financial resources between institutional sectors at the regional and municipal levels and the peculiarities of reproduction of their financial potential.Balance model of Eidelman M.R. [3] reflected the processes of reproduction of the aggregate social product in a fairly wide range of sectors of the national economy
Summary
The scenario approach to forecasting the economic sustainability of territorial systems has significant advantages over other approaches. The balance of their financial potential forms the stability of the territorial system, and the disproportions that arise in its reproduction indicate the threat of loss of this stability. The construction of the model was based on the accounting data of only 20% of enterprises
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