Scenario-led modelling of broadleaf forest expansion in Wales.

Syed Amir Manzoor,Geoffrey Griffiths,Martin Lukac,James Latham

doi:10.1098/rsos.190026

Abstract

Significant changes in the composition and extent of the UK forest cover are likely to take place in the coming decades. Current policy targets an increase in forest area, for example, the Welsh Government aims for forest expansion by 2030, and a purposeful shift from non-native conifers to broadleaved tree species, as identified by the UK Forestry Standard Guidelines on Biodiversity. Using the example of Wales, we aim to generate an evidence-based projection of the impact of contrasting policy scenarios on the state of forests in the near future, with the view of stimulating debate and aiding decisions concerning plausible outcomes of different policies. We quantified changes in different land use and land cover (LULC) classes in Wales between 2007 and 2015 and used a multi-layer perceptron–Markov chain ensemble modelling approach to project the state of Welsh forests in 2030 under the current and an alternative policy scenario. The current level of expansion and restoration of broadleaf forest in Wales is sufficient to deliver on existing policy goals. We also show effects of a more ambitious afforestation policy on the Welsh landscape. In a key finding, the highest intensity of broadleaf expansion is likely to shift from southeastern to more central areas of Wales. The study identifies the key predictors of LULC change in Wales. High-resolution future land cover simulation maps using these predictors offer an evidence-based tool for forest managers and government officials to test the effects of existing and alternative policy scenarios.

Highlights

Global forest cover has receded rapidly in the recent past, largely due to the conversion of forests into pasture and croplands [1].& 2019 The Authors
The predictor variables considered in this study explained the land use and land cover (LULC) transitions between 2007 and 2015 well; the average accuracy of all transition sub-models considered in this study was 79%
This study reveals the changes in LULC in Wales from 2007 to 2015 by using a combined approach of GIS and land change prediction models

Summary

Introduction

Global forest cover has receded rapidly in the recent past, largely due to the conversion of forests into pasture and croplands [1].& 2019 The Authors. Extensive plantations of single-species non-native conifers resulted in the loss of important habitats [6,7], with a direct negative effect on species diversity [8]. In the latter part of the twentieth century, British forestry policy gradually changed to address a wider set of objectives to complement timber production, resulting in a broad focus on the expansion of native tree species cover [5]

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