Scenario Forecasting of the Agri-Food Sphere in Rural Territories Development in the Conditions of Digital Economy Formation

Abstract

The study aims to scientifically substantiate the application of the scenario approach in predicting the development of the agri-food sector in rural areas. The conceptual novelty of the study is that it develops a scenario forecasting algorithm for the development of the agri-food sector of rural areas in the digital economy. It also clarifies methodological approaches and recommendations for forecasting production volumes of certain agri-food products at the zonal level. The paper shows that digitalization is one of the critical factors that directly ensure an increase in agribusiness efficiency in the current conditions in agriculture. An assessment of the impact of digital transformation processes on the activities of agricultural producers is given, and the advantages of using modern digital technologies in the agricultural sector are highlighted. Furthermore, the results of scenario forecasting of production volumes of agri-food products by farms of all categories are presented in the example of the non-black soil zone of the Republic of Bashkortostan. The study’s preliminary results are as follows: the world experience in scientific research on the use of digital technologies in the activities of agricultural producers was generalized.