Scenario-based urban growth simulation by incorporating ecological-agricultural-urban suitability into a Future Land Use Simulation model

Abstract

China's rapid urbanization has imposed a considerable strain on land resources and infrastructure, resulting in environmental deterioration, food shortage, traffic congestion, and various other challenges. The urban growth boundary (UGB) is regarded as an important policy instrument for managing and curbing urban sprawl. Previous studies on UGB have focused on the quantity and spatial constraints of built-up land concerning natural resources conservation. However, achieving a balance between urban conservation and development by easing the conflict between land functions is not yet well understood. To bridge this gap, combining “bottom-up” local spatial simulation with “top-down” regulation and human constraint, this study simulated multi-scenario urban expansion and UGB in Jiangsu Province, China in 2035 using ecological-agricultural-urban suitability assessment and a Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model. The results show that the maintenance of different land functions will have a significant impact on the number, spatial distribution, and landscape characteristics of UGB. Under the integrated development scenario, UGB will have the largest area (27,893.33 km2) with the most significant agglomeration characteristics. The delineated UGB, coupling ecological-agricultural-urban suitability, will reflect regional heterogeneous resource endowment and can further alleviate conflicts between multiple objectives. For fairness and equality between cities, future urban expansion should emphasize the development of less-developed areas. This study expands a new insight for simulating urban expansion and offers practical recommendations for orderly urban growth and sustainable urban management in other cities.