Scenario Based Technology Road Mapping to Transfer Renewable Energy Technologies to Sri Lanka

Abstract

As per the International Energy Agency (IEA) 2009 report, rapidly growing energy demand in developing countries is projected to double by 2030. After ending the three decades of civil war, the Sri Lankan economy has also shown a robust growth; hence the country has shown a continuous growth in energy demand. In 1995 Sri Lanka met 95% of the total electricity demand using major hydro power plants. But due to the escalating demand for electricity and government policies favouring the coal powered power plants, a completely different power mix exists today. By the end of year 2012, more than 70% of the total electrify requirements of the country was met with fossil based energy sources. Today, as responses to the threats of climate change manifest, following many other nations, Sri Lanka also considered renewable energy in their energy mix. However, the lack of technological capabilities has hindered the development of renewable energy technologies in the Country. The solution to such constrains lies with effective technology transfer and cooperation of renewable energy technologies. Technology Road-mapping and scenarios are two widely used future techniques to support strategic and long-range planning. This paper provides a combined approach of technology road mapping and scenario planning in order to foster the renewable energy technologies of Sri Lanka via effective technology transfer mechanisms. The combined approach consists with six steps, and foresight analysis tools such as literature review, expert’s interviews, STEEPV analysis, and Delphi technique were used along the process. Four scenarios named ‘Land of Republic’, ‘Green Paradise,’ ‘Drowning Island’ and ‘Black Island’ were developed. Out of the four scenarios, ‘Green Paradise’ was considered as the most favourable scenario for Sri Lanka and technology roadmap was developed targeting this scenario. The proposed technology roadmap consists with six steps and the roadmap suggests effective technology transfer mechanism to foster the renewable energy technologies of the country.