Scenario-based study of medical resource requirement rapid assessment under the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Objective: COVID-19 outbreak is still under global pandemic. China is facing the risks of importation and local rebound of COVID-19. Under the circumstances, preparations for medical resources are in urgently needed. Methods: Based on current understanding of the disease, we set up five scenarios and use the infectious disease transmission dynamic and pandemic theoretical static models to evaluate the demand for medical resources. Results: Different epidemic strength and strategies of disease control and prevention resulted in different levels of medical resource request, and active control strategy and effective measures could significantly decrease the requirement. During the epidemic rising phase, the cost of prevention and control measures and the requirement of professional response capacities would increase with potential high risk of medical resource demand sharply increasing. Conclusion: Regions with different economic level, population scale, and different prevention and control capabilities should all initiate scientific assessment of medical resource requirement under emergency response and prepare for possible future rebound and epidemic.