Scenario-based Prediction-of-Events: A New Theory Linking Strategic Planning of Healthcare Operations to the Prognosis of Medical Conditions

Abstract

The “Scenario-based Prediction-of-Events” theory and conceptual model predicts the occurrence of future events according to different potential scenarios based on fixed certainties that include business, humanistic, and system-related factors, as well as other unexpected uncertainties. The new theory and model could be applied in any industry. Upon application in healthcare, the new model links strategic planning of healthcare operations to the prognosis of medical conditions. Prediction of how a certain medical condition would behave and creating scenarios based on the certainties (historical data) and the uncertainties (future expectations) using scenario-based analysis is an innovative strategic approach. The model will predict all the possible scenarios for prognosis of a medical condition and their consequences on resource utilization and strategic planning. Developing standard operating procedures (SOPs) for each written scenario with expected cost and capacity requirements will help the organization better strategically predict future needs for capacity-building and lead to better strategic planning of healthcare operations as well as management of organizational resources.