Scenario-based planning for tourism development using system dynamic modelling: A case study of Cat Ba Island, Vietnam

Abstract

Tourism destinations are dynamically complex systems in which behaviour is controlled by many interacting components and feedback loops. Yet tourism destination planning has traditionally been based on forecasting models that rely on historical data to predict future trends.We explore system dynamic modelling as an alternative to forecasting models for the scenario-based planning of tourism destinations. We construct a system dynamic model for tourism development on Cat Ba Island, a rapidly developing tourist destination in Vietnam, and use it to model alternative tourism development scenarios.Our results indicate that the current trajectory of tourism development on Cat Ba Island is not sustainable and limits to growth may be reached as early as 2022 due to water shortages, pollution and overcrowding. Beyond this time the destination risks breaching its limits to growth, which creates a further risk, that of eroding carrying capacity through resource depletion and environmental degradation.