Scenario based optimisation over uncertain system identification models

Abstract

Models of dynamical systems are often built from observed data using system identification techniques, and the uncertainty in the model parameters is commonly described using confidence regions to which the true model parameters belong with a certain probability. In this paper we propose methods which use the scenario approach to solve robust optimisation problems for model based design where there is uncertainty in the model parameters. The methods draw samples (scenarios) of the uncertain model parameters and solve an optimisation problem only involving the drawn scenarios. Both a Bayesian system identification setting where the model parameters are stochastic, and a non-Bayesian system identification setting where the model parameters are treated as being deterministic are considered. The Bayesian and non-Bayesian settings require different treatment, and whereas standard scenario optimisation theory can be directly utilised in the Bayesian setting, this is not the case in the non-Bayesian setting. For that reason the model class is restricted to linear regression models with deterministic regressors in the non-Bayesian case. Algorithms are proposed for drawing samples of the parameters such that the uncertainties in the system identification models are reflected in the samples. Theoretical results are given bounding the probability that the found solution to the scenario optimisation problem will give a worse performance when applied to the true system than seen on the drawn scenarios. The methods are illustrated in simulation examples showing good performance.