Scenario-based land use modeling for nutrient management in the Skaneateles Lake Watershed

Abstract

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are becoming increasingly common in freshwater and coastal waters around the world. Eutrophication and the impairment of water quality due to the toxins produced by HABs are especially concerning for water bodies used as a drinking water supply. Freshwater systems are becoming more susceptible to HABs due to anthropogenic nutrient loading from nonpoint sources and from the influence of climate change, which results in increased water temperatures and precipitation. This paper focuses on Skaneateles Lake, one of New York's Finger Lakes that has recently begun to experience HABS. Here, we use the InVEST Nutrient Delivery Ratio (NDR) Model to demonstrate a novel approach to stakeholder engagement in assessing the potential impact of different land management options on annual nutrient loads. Through these stakeholder-informed scenarios, we find that the use of riparian buffers offers the most efficient pathway to reducing nutrient loading to the Lake.