Scenario-Based Land Use and Land Cover Change Detection and Prediction Using the Cellular Automata–Markov Model in the Gumara Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) change detection and prediction studies are crucial for supporting sustainable watershed planning and management. Hence, this study aimed to detect historical LULC changes from 1985 to 2019 and predict future changes for 2035 (near future) and 2065 (far future) in the Gumara watershed, Upper Blue Nile (UBN) Basin, Ethiopia. LULC classification for the years 1985, 2000, 2010, and 2019 was performed using Landsat images along with vegetation indices and topographic factors. The random forest (RF) machine learning algorithm built into the cloud-based platform Google Earth Engine (GEE) was used for classification. The results of the classification accuracy assessment indicated perfect agreement between the classified maps and the validation dataset, with kappa coefficients (K) of 0.92, 0.94, 0.90, and 0.88 for the LULC maps of 1985, 2000, 2010, and 2019, respectively. Based on the classified maps, cultivated land and settlement increased from 58.60 to 83.08% and 0.06 to 0.18%, respectively, from 1985 to 2019 at the expense of decreasing forest, shrubland and grassland. Future LULC prediction was performed using the cellular automata–Markov (CA–Markov) model under (1) the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which is based on the current trend of socioeconomic development, and (2) the governance (GOV) scenario, which is based on the Green Legacy Initiative (GLI) program of Ethiopia. Under the BAU scenario, significant expansions of cultivated land and settlement were predicted from 83.08 to 89.01% and 0.18 to 0.83%, respectively, from 2019 to 2065. Conversely, under the GOV scenario, the increase in forest area was predicted to increase from 2.59% (2019) to 4.71% (2065). For this reason, this study recommends following the GOV scenario to prevent flooding and soil degradation in the Gumara watershed. Finally, the results of this study provide information for government policymakers, land use planners, and watershed managers to develop sustainable land use management plans and policies.